A realist partner for Linda

confirming a theoretical hypothesis more than its observational sub-hypothesis

Theo A. Kuipers

pp. 63-71

in: Jeanne Peijnenburg, Branden Fitelson, Igor Douven (eds), Probability, confirmation and fallacies, Synthese 184 (1), 2012.

Abstract

It is argued that the conjunction effect has a disjunctive analog of strong interest for the realism–antirealism debate. It is possible that a proper theory is more confirmed than its (more probable) observational sub-theory and hence than the latter’s disjunctive equivalent, i.e., the disjunction of all proper theories that are empirically equivalent to the given one. This is illustrated by a toy model.