The necessity, sufficiency and desirability of experts as value forecasters

Gordon Welty

pp. 363-379

in: Werner Leinfellner, Eckehart Köhler (eds), Developments in the methodology of social science, Berlin, Springer, 1974

Abstract

A typology of long-range forecasting exercises is developed, with facts and values as one dimension where forecast subject matter can be located, description and prescription as a second dimension where the function of the exercise can be located, and expertise of the forecaster as a third dimension. Three questions are addressed. Are experts desirable in long-range descriptive and prescriptive value forecasting? Are experts necessary for descriptive value forecasting? Are experts sufficient for prescriptive value forecasting? We suggest that the use of experts in long-range value forecasting exercises is of questionable desirability on analytical grounds, is unnecessary in light of a series of comparative empirical studies, and on social psychological theoretical grounds may well be insufficient as well.