Complexity in economics and prediction

the role of parsimonious factors

Wenceslao J. Gonzalez

pp. 319-330

in: Dennis Dieks, Stephan Hartmann, Thomas Uebel, Marcel Weber, Wenceslao J. Gonzalez (eds), Explanation, prediction, and confirmation, Berlin, Springer, 2011

Abstract

Complexity is a key feature in the sciences of design from the point of view of their framework—or constitutive elements—as well as of their dynamics. This twofold complexity affects economics insofar as it is one of the sciences of the artificial. In this regard, economics is a 'science of design" that enlarges our possibilities towards the future and uses prediction as a basis for decision-making. But economics is also a social science that deals with human needs. This feature adds more factors to the analysis of its complex configuration as a science and its dynamic evolution. Commonly, the studies on complexity in economics are focused on particular forms of expression of complexity rather than on the roots of this problem as a dual science (i.e., artificial and social).