Reliability via synthetic a priori

Reichenbach's doctoral thesis on probability

Frederick Eberhardt

pp. 125-136

in: Gürol Irzik, Elliott Sober (eds), Hans Reichenbach, Istanbul, and experience and prediction, Synthese 181 (1), 2011.

Abstract

Hans Reichenbach is well known for his limiting frequency view of probability, with his most thorough account given in The Theory of Probability in 1935/1949. Perhaps less known are Reichenbach’s early views on probability and its epistemology. In his doctoral thesis from 1915, Reichenbach espouses a Kantian view of probability, where the convergence limit of an empirical frequency distribution is guaranteed to exist thanks to the synthetic a priori principle of lawful distribution. Reichenbach claims to have given a purely objective account of probability, while integrating the concept into a more general philosophical and epistemological framework. A brief synopsis of Reichenbach’s thesis and a critical analysis of the problematic steps of his argument will show that the roots of many of his most influential insights on probability and causality can be found in this early work.

Cited authors

Kant Immanuel

Reichenbach Hans